I’ve graphed some of the Eurostat data mentioned here. Brian Lucey reckons this means that our deficit for 2010 as a whole (as oppose to the quarterly figure) will be around -20%. Have we turned a corner?
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This contraction was predictable given that going on 20% of the total economy was directly tied into a construction bubble that burst more than two years ago, and given that in absence of capacity to devalue there was an establishment consensus to use unemployment to drive wages down to take the whole burden of our loss of competitiveness. That, along with emigration, was the Government’s only employment strategy.